As Texans reel from the deadly flooding that hit the Guadalupe River, experts are raising concerns over how mass layoffs at federal weather agencies have put communities at risk, per Newsone.

According to reports, flooding in Central Texas has left at least 109 people dead, including 27 children, and many others missing.

The deadly flooding has put a spotlight on sweeping staff cuts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which were implemented earlier this year by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). More than 880 NOAA and National Weather Service (NWS) employees were laid off in two rounds of cuts, a move that several meteorologists and climate researchers have said has compromised the response to extreme weather.

Ahead of Friday (July 4)'s flooding, the New Braunfels National Weather Service (NWS) office faced a 22 percent staff reduction due to budget cuts. The Trump administration maintained that forecasts, watches, and warnings were issued promptly despite the mass cuts. However, Dr. Richard Spinrad, a former NOAA administrator, noted that the position for Warning Coordination Meteorologist, a key liaison between forecasters and local emergency managers that ensures weather messages are received and acted upon, was vacant at the time of the flooding.

“I am convinced that the staff cuts that we saw were a contributing factor to the inability of the emergency managers to respond,” Spinrad said in a statement.

NOAA's proposed budget for the coming year is expected to reduce its workforce from over 12,000 employees to 10,000. The budget also includes cuts to several research labs, including the National Severe Storms Lab (NSSL) in Norman, Oklahoma, where the FLASH system, a tool that improves the accuracy and timing of flash flood warnings, was created. The department also previously developed the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, which was designed to enhance decision-making during severe weather events.

Eliminating the NSSL and other research labs could severely limit the ability to advance warning technologies that help save lives during extreme weather events, Alan Gerard, a former researcher and analyst with NOAA’s NSSL, said.

“If we had advanced modeling and forecasting that would be able to tell you there’s a pretty high chance that this area is going to get six to nine inches of rain in three hours tonight—that’s a whole different situation,” Gerard said in a statement. “We don’t have that capability right now, but with research and developments that we’re doing, like the National Severe Storms Lab, we could within the next several years.”

Miami-based hurricane specialist Michael Lowry also expressed concern over proposed budget cuts at the NOAA.

“The terrible events in Texas the past few days do serve as a salient reminder of why NOAA-developed tools and National Weather Service forecasts are so critical to this country,” Lowry said in a statement. “One of the primary tools we use to predict flash floods like the ones in Central Texas come from the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System, a project of the National Severe Storms Laboratory or NSSL in Norman, Oklahoma. I’ve zero doubt NWS forecasters were leveraging that tool that evening to issue flash flood warnings. The National Severe Storms Laboratory and associated projects like this one are slated for elimination in NOAA’s proposed 2026 budget, which would be detrimental to our ability to forecast these types of deadly floods in the future.”

Concerns about the future of weather forecasting and response are exacerbated in lower-income and Black communities. A 2023 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) study determined that Black communities, particularly along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, will face at least a 20 percent increase in flood risk by 2050. A 2020 study led by the University of Arizona found that Black and Hispanic communities, along with individuals with low incomes, are more likely to live in areas at high risk of flooding from natural disasters compared to white and Asian populations.

As flood risks are disproportionately impacting Black communities, mass layoffs at federal weather agencies will likely hinder the ability to predict and prepare for these types of weather disasters.

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